An Introduction To NFL Preseason Handicapping

Written by Ross Everett

Tuesday, 29 December 2009 09:05

by RossEverett

There's not much 'middle ground' when it comes to the desirability of betting NFL preseason games. The overly conservative handicappers suggest that its a poor wagering opportunity, while the 'boiler room' sports touts try to suggest that short of a fixed game there's no more sure thing than preseason football. There's a degree of truth in both views. Handicapping preseason NFL football is a unique discipline unto itself, but with knowledge and caution it can be a profitable endeavor.

The most compelling argument against preseason wagering is simply that the games don't count. While there are often spots during the regular season where teams may seem more or less motivated, in theory they all want to win. That's not something that can be taken as a 'given' during the preseason, however, as the individual agendas of NFL coaching staffs can very widely. Some might want to win games to establish a winning attitude, others might put a greater focus on working in a new offensive or defensive scheme. Others may prioritize evaluating talent at key positions, while others may simply want to make it through to the regular season without any significant injuries. With all of the uncertainty swirling around preseason football, handicapping wins and losses against the pointspread can be exceedingly difficult.

The preseason NFL betting enthusiast would suggest, however, that it is the uncertainty that characterizes these games that makes for such a strong wagering opportunity. For example, in a matchup between a championship level team and a losing team you often see strongly divergent approaches to the game. Successful teams have more to worry about in terms of player injuries, fewer areas in which they need to evaluate talent, and more continuity in the areas of coaching and team chemistry. They often view preseason games as a chore, and have little interest in their outcome as long as they keep their superstars healthy.

Now, lets look at the other side of the equation. A "lesser" team by regular season standards might have a number of starting spots or key backup spots up for grabs. They may have new coaches to impress, or new offensive or defensive coordinators whose schemes they'll have to implement. Certainly, winning any games"whether or not they count in the standings"are of utmost importance to losing teams trying to turn things around. Finally, a bad team can gain a lot more psychologically from beating a playoff team than the playoff team can from beating a doormat. A struggling team that is destined to lose a lot during the regular season won't have a lot of bright spots, so a preseason win against one of the league's elite can mean a lot more.

Even among teams that don't worry much about wins and losses during the preseason, they don't want to go into the season losing them all. For that reason, one of the most successful preseason situations over the past decade and a half have been teams that lost their first two preseason affairs. During that span, 0-2 teams have hit right around 60% against the spread.

Perhaps nothing determines a team's approach to the preseason more than the philosophy of the head coach. Some coaches simply hate to lose anytime they line 'em up to play football, and as a result their teams are usually good preseason bets. Bill Parcells was famous for the preseason focus of his teams. Not surprisingly, many who worked with Parcells earlier in their careers are now carving out their own records of preseason success. This sort of dominance isn't lost on the linesmaker and a coach like the Giants' Tom Coughlin (a former Parcells assistant) will have his ATS success will definitely been factored into the pointspread. Still, a motivated team that wants to win is always worthy of consideration.

One of the best tools that a handicapper has at his disposal during the preseason is the Internet. Actually, it's a great tool year round but during the preseason it is invaluable. The best source of information on coaching philosophies, game plans, injuries, lineup changes, etc, are the local sports pages of NFL teams. Basically, the situation during preseason is that there is a lot of interest in the team and a lot of anxious beat writers looking to write stories. The problem is that there is little in the way of real news, and for that reason you'll find the sort of minutiae on teams and players from which you can often extract relevant handicapping information. Even if there aren't any nuggets of handicapping gold, you can at least get a feel for the coach's goals for the game and the amount of playing time that key players will see. Sometimes coaches will come right out and say who will play at what juncture of the game, and will occasionally go on record that personnel decisions like evaluating all of the guys they're considering for the backup defensive secondary jobs are more important than winning. Clearly, operating with this knowledge is a distinct advantage and operating without it can be fatal. There's nothing more frustrating than betting on a team only to have them look like they could care less whether or not they win the game. During the preseason, however, it can frequently be prevented with some simple research and analysis.

The bottom line is that while the NFL preseason does offer some solid moneymaking opportunities, its not a 'free cash grab'. It's best viewed as an opportunity to grind out a small profit, but as always its essential to maintain the same degree of discipline in handicapping and money management as at any other time during the pro football season.

About the Author:

Ross Everett is a respected freelance writer experienced in travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.

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